There is a lot of confusion and misinformation when we look at electric vehicle competition.

There are many common mistakes or problems in reported EV data and analysis.

* there is the inclusion of plug in hybrid vehices with battery electric vehicle sales

Plug in hybrids (PHEV) have combustion engines. Norway has seen PHEV sales collapse as they make the full transition to electric vehicles. Norway is a country that now has 80-90% BEV sales. ICE (combustion engines) and PHEV have both collapsed in that most advanced EV market.

* China and other EV markets do not get broken out into clear price categories. This is especially problematic in China where only 20% of 2.9 BEV vehicles sold in 2021 were in the $38K+ price range. Tesla has 55% of the $38k+ BEV China market.

Looking at apples to apples price categories and vehicle segments shows Tesla maintaining 55-75% market share. In Europe Tesla only has about 25-30% market share for comparitive priced EVs. But Tesla is hampered by $15k for import duties and shipping costs. This handicap will go away with the Berlin factory fully ramped.

Cybertruck is key for Tesla to address 70%% of the US market which is dominated by large trucks and large SUVs. The Model Y does have a 7-seat version which does enable some competition for the 7-seat SUV market.

Tesla’s gigapresses and improved batteries will enable Tesla to extend its advantage for lower costs and efficiency. Constant improvement in Tesla vehicles could enable Tesla to get to Model 3 and Model Y versions that are acceptable bu $10-20k lower cost than the current starter versions.

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