Tesla FSD Version 11 Tracking to Customer Rollout Start

Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla FSD Beta version 11 is on track to start releasing to customer testers before thanksgiving. This would only be a few at first but over a few weeks 200,000 people should get it in the US and Canada.

This would mean about $1.09 billion in deferred revenue would be recognized for Q4. The 15% of US customers that are currently buying in Q1 and onwards would be fully recognized. This would be about $300M of extra Q1 income for 100% of revenue instead of 50%. If the US Tesla FSD take rate increases to 20% for new purchases and 2% per quarter for more people who previously bought cars but not FSD this would mean about 40,000 more sales per quarter or about $600 million. In 2023, it would be about $3 billion. Increasing take rate and getting those who already bought cars but did not buy FSD purchase is the big prize. Plus, Tesla could improve the highway only enhanced autopilot with superior FSD for highway and add in smart summon in all parking lots.

This would still be pre-robotaxi level. The human still needs to monitor the car. However, it is a significant milestone towards robotaxi level 4 capability. I define robotaxi at scale as one million cars capable of giving humanless rides. Tesla just needs to get the software working and sent out via over the air updates. There would be over one million cars capable of providing those capabilities and a network could be giving rides from customer cars once the software is ready. Other companies chasing robotaxi have to build the dedicated vehicles with the sensors and software and deploy them in cities that approve. The Lidar and other sensors will take years to scale. None of the other companies can get to 1 million robotaxis before 2028 and likely 2035.

Tesla can just continue building cars and every car they make will be robotaxi ready. Tesla is targeting 20 million cars oer year by 2030. 20 million robotaxis with each operating at the usage rate (50,000 miles per year) of an average taxi cab would generate about $1 trillion at $1 per mile.

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