Russia Retreats to South Side of Oskil River

Ukrainian arm forces appears to have forced Russia’s military to retreat to the south side of the Oskil River. This means all of the area around Kupyansk and Izium have been retaken.

The collapse of Russian lines seems to show the effectiveness of new Ukrainian tactics and US intelligence. Ukraine used Himars precision long-range artillery and sabotage to destroy key ammo depots and command centers. Russia’s military was depending upon lots of ammunition to maintain intense artillery bombardment. Russia’s military has a rigid and inflexible command structure.

Ukraine has captured a lot of Russian equipment because this was a hasty disorganized retreat. The captured equipment weakens Russia and strengthens Ukraine.

Russia does not seem like they will be able to address the key factors for this success. US satellites and intelligence have been able to precisely identify ammo depots and command centers. Russia has no response to precision long-range Himars artillery.

Russia cannot turn on a lot of their radar sensors because Ukraine has some radar seeking missiles. Ukraine does not fire those missiles but uses them to identify the location of key installations and equipment.

It seems like only a matter of months before Russia has to completely retreat from Ukraine. Four or five more operations of this scale will push Russia out. Russia loses thousands of soldiers and lots of equipment. Russia will not be able to recruit and train soldiers at the speed and scale needed to do anything. More troops will not matter if Russia cannot address their disadvantages against long-range precision artillery.

Russia cannot train or retrain air force pilots to make the air force effective.

It would take years to address the many logistical, equipment and military tactic problems. Russia failed to do this after the Chechnya wars decades ago.

Ukrainian forces advanced to positions within 15–25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 10. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces captured Velyky Burlyk at the T2111 and T2114 intersection and Khotomlya on the east bank of the Pechenhy Reservoir.

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