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Lex Fridman Talks Singularity With Ray Kurzweil


Lex Fridman talked with Ray Kurzweil about the Technological Singularity.

Ray still asserts that computer artificial intelligence will pass the Turing Test in 2029 and the Singularity will happen around 2045. In the past, Ray has clarified that his predictions date are usually with an implied plus or minus one decade. A Ray Kurzweil prediction with a date can be plus or minus 10 years and Ray would consider it a good prediction.

I have some recent videos related to Ray and his predictions and measuring the progress of technology through 2100.

I have a video where I describe how Elon Musk will bring about much of what Ray Singularity predicts with the Teslabot and self-driving cars. Teslabot, humanoid robots, will expand labor that costs less than 50 cents per hour and enable economic abundance and rapid technological advancement.

I have another video that describes a scale for measuring the economic impact of a technological singularity.

The Technological Singularity is a predicted point when technological growth becomes radically faster.

Normal economic doubling for the past 100 years and the expected levels to 2100.

The world economy has been doubling every 25 years for last 100 years
We have 15 times as much steel and oil as the world had during World War 2. There have been four doublings of key materials used globally in the past 80 years.
Therefore, we would expect the world too double its economy every 25 years til 2100.

This would be:
$220 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2045. [$24k per person]
$440 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2070
$880 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2095.

What if the Teslabot scenario happens? What about something life Kurzweil’s singularity. Global meaningful Technology Acceleration is extra doublings.

Acceleration adds more doublings
Level 1 Extra double 2020-2045 : $440 trillion PPP GDP by 2045 [$50k per person]
Level 2 Extra 2045-2070: $1760 trillion PPP GDP by 2070 [$176k per person]
Level 3 Extra by 2095 $7040 trillion by 2095 [$700k per person]

6% per year world GDP growth instead of 3% per year for 25 years

There are 16 doublings needed to achieve a Type 1 Civilization. This means an economy that is 64,000 times larger than it is today. We are at $100 trillion world economy. $6,400,000 trillion would be a Type 1 civilization.

Real World AI would be general artificial human level intelligence. Capabilities to provide broad levels of human jobs and tasks.

Teslabots able to perform loading and deliveries to massively boost the supply chain.
Teslabots able to perform manufacturing tasks in the factory.
Teslabots able to use machines built for humans.
Teslabots able to work in factories to make factories self replicating.
Teslabots able to perform mining.

These capabilities would make economic growth massively exponential.

They would be able to rapidly lower the cost of other Teslabots and increase production from millions to trillions of Teslabots.

The wealth and production capabilities would make it easier to devote more resources to improving artificial intelligence, robotics and manufacturing and all other research. Just as our current economy that is 100 times larger than the economy of the late 18th century has the resources to accelerate science and technological research and development.

Giant.ai is a far smaller company than Tesla and they are making progress with an upper torso humanoid factory bot.

Tesla sells Model Ys for about $60000, but it currently costs them about $30000-40000 to make them. A Teslabot is 1/30th of the mass of a Model Y. It would use 1/30th of the batteries. The software is an overall cost of development. If billions of bots are produced then the cost would trend toward the cost of the hardware plus Apple iPhone-like margins including the software (say 40% gross margin). At Model Y cost of $30k then the hardware cost for Teslabot will go to $1000. $2000 with margins and software. A bot can work for 8000 hours in a year. 8760 hours in a year. $2000 divided by 8000 hours is $0.25. If you add 10 cents per hour for electricity then it is $0.35 per hour. Going beyond that is bots can work in the factory and work cheaper than humans. Currently 15000 workers in Tesla China factory. Replace all of them with $0.35 per hour bots. Reduce labor cost component. If a lot of bots can increase production rates. by 2X then all costs spread over more units. Bot-produced solar and batteries can lower the cost of energy by vastly increasing the supply. Those trends could get us to $500-1000 per bot costs and lower energy costs.

In terms of the strict definition of super-intelligence, this would be a soft take off version of super-intelligence. It would be 100 years to get to a billion times total human level intelligence. Production of quadrillions of human level bots to colonize the solar system would reach a billion times ten billion in the 22nd century.

Adding in molecular nanotechnology, say in the 2030s would supercharge the Teslabot technological singularity to a semi-hard takeoff.



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