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Ford Hopes to Produce EVs Late in 2023 at Tesla’s 2020 Runrate $F $TSLA


Ford’s late 2023 electric vehicles production runrate target is half of Tesla Q4 2021 production runrate. Tesla built 305,000 vehicles in Q4 of 2021. Annually at that rate of production Tesla would make 1.22 million cars.

Ford hopes to be about three years behind Tesla in EV production. Tesla ended 2020 with 179,757 produced in Q4. This would have been 720,000 vehicles on an annualized basis.

Tesla just finished increasing production of its Model Y factory in Shanghai. It is reported Tesla Model Y factory in Shanghai is making 2,000 units per day, and will gradually increase to about 2,200 vehicles per day. The increase to 2200 per day should happen in August, 2022. Tesla has shutdown the Model 3 line in Shanghai to increase production. After the Model 3 modernization is completed, one-day production of Model 3 will reach 1,000-1,200 units per day. This corresponds to 7,000-8,400 vehicles per week, or 365,000-438,000 Model 3s per year.

Tesla Model Y line should have a runrate of 800000 cars per year in August 2022. Tesla has the Model Y and Model 3 factory as part of the Shanghai gigafactory.

Tesla is also building an entire second gigafactory in Shanghai. This could more than double the Tesla Shanghai capacity over two years to about 2.5-3 million cars per year. The second gigafactory could be at about 500,000 per year runrate at the end of 2023.

Tesla also has the Fremont factory, Berlin factory and Austin Texas factory.

Tesla should end 2022 with about 2.1 million car per year runrate. Tesla should end 2023 with about 3.6-4.2 million car runrate. This will 6 to seven times more than Ford if Ford hits its 2023 EV production target.

Tesla completed an upgrade to the Giga Berlin plant to get to 3000 cars per week. This would be 150000 cars per year runrate. Tesla Giga Berlin should end 2022 at over 250,000 cars per year run rate and end 2023 at over 500,000 cars per year runrate.

Tesla Austin will be at similar levels to Berlin.

Tesla Fremont should increased production in 2023 to 700,000-800,000 cars per year.





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